Six months ago, as Liz Warren was beginning to rise to frontrunner status, I wrote a piece comparing Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. I demonstrated at the time, in my opinion, that Bernie Sanders’ plans were better, his political experience was more substantial and compelling, and his understanding of how to build power amongst the people was better.
We are in a very different time now. Bernie Sanders has had his moment at just the right time. He won the popular vote in Iowa. He won the New Hampshire primary. And he absolutely routed in the Nevada primary. As of this writing, Nate Silver gives Bernie Sanders a 2/3 chance of winning a plurality of delegates. He has secured the endorsements of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib. He has the endorsements of pro-immigrant groups like Make the Road and Mijente, as well as the climate action group, the Sunrise Movement. Many prominent unions from the United Teachers of Los Angeles to National Nurses United to the American Postal Workers Union have gotten behind Bernie Sanders. This appears to be Bernie Sanders’ moment.
But Elizabeth Warren hangs on, and there are many that feel that she has not been given her fair shake. My totally scientific and anecdotal polling of my friends and family suggest that if y’all are not voting for Sanders, you’re still all in for Warren. And with the way that she absolutely–and oh so justly–bodied Michael Bloomberg in the last debate, there’s reason to believe that she might be back in the mix in this race.
So let me revisit this post and show why the last six months have shown that Bernie Sanders is the clear choice of progressives in this primary.
BUT FIRST… I want to make clear something I’ve said in the past: I love Elizabeth Warren. I’ve said in the past that if she were to somehow become the nominee, I would happily support her, donate to her, and volunteer for her. Her destruction of Michael Bloomberg on the issue of his treatment of women who worked for him demonstrated one thing to me: that Senator Warren is a friend to working people, and has a clear disdain for the people who have rigged our economy in favor of the wealthy.
And I should also say that I have nothing but love for her supporters, many of whom I know for a fact are good people who have spent their lives fighting against injustice in many forms. I’m assuming the best intentions of Warren supporters, and I hope that you do the same with me.
I’m voting against Warren, not because I dislike her, but because Bernie is better. And he has conclusively shown that in the last few months since my last piece. How so?
- Elizabeth Warren blinked. Bernie Sanders did not
Trouble started brewing when Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders started facing tough questions and a concerted propaganda effort against Medicare For All. With of course the eternal question “hOw ArE yOu gOiNg tO pAy fOr iT?!” And everyone wanted an answer to the question of whether Medicare For All would raise taxes.
This is where I believe Bernie Sanders demonstrated superior instincts to Elizabeth Warren. Warren could not give a straight and clear answer to the question of Medicare For All. Her messaging was, simply put, not clear, and did not land.
Bernie Sanders understands something that a lot of Democrats don’t. Want a message to land? Say it crisply and clearly. It’s the bumper sticker test; can someone know what you believe in a bumper sticker?
Bernie Sanders, when asked about Medicare For All, has been quite clear: “Your federal taxes will go up. No premiums. No deductibles.”
I’ve spoken at length about Sanders’ political instincts. This tells us a lot about those instincts. Sanders gets how to talk about issues so they’ll land with the people. Warren has not shown quite that same ability. When she was pressed and challenged, she couldn’t quite land on a message in a way she needs to to win over voters.
And then Elizabeth Warren blinked again. She proposed a confusing multi-step plan for passing Medicare For All. It included an oddly regressive taxation plan that would have harmed small businesses and workers, and stretched out over four years, which means that the plan could easily be quashed by a bad midterm. She broke the first rule of a negotiation: don’t reveal upfront what you’re willing to compromise on. She negotiated against herself in public view before she ever entered office.
Her plan for Medicare for All satisfied no one. For many leftist supporters, the plan seemed to confirm long held suspicions that Warren simply did not care that much about Medicare For All as a policy goal. Meanwhile, those that felt that Medicare For All was the wrong path were unimpressed with the plan and went with the candidate who seemed to fit their vision, Pete Buttigieg.
Bernie Sanders? He promised to propose a Medicare For All bill on Day 1. As a matter of politics he has earned the fruits of sticking to his guns. This is perhaps why Congress’s most vocal advocate for Medicare For All, Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, has endorsed Bernie Sanders for President.
- Foreign Policy
There were two tests of foreign policy early on in this race, and on each, Bernie proved himself superior.
The first was on Bolivia, where Evo Morales was overthrown in an effective coup. Mainstream media went with the line that Evo Morales basically cheated to try to give the recent presidential election to himself. We knew at the time, thanks to reporting from Democracy Now, the Center for Economic Policy and Research, and the Grayzone, that this was not true and that trumped up allegations were being used to justify a right wing military takeover of Bolivia. Now that the Washington Post has gotten on board we can safely say that this was a lie.
Elizabeth Warren-despite much of this journalism being common knowledge- refused to call this a coup and to take a stern line against right wing violence in Latin America. You know who did immediately? Bernie Sanders.
This tells me a lot about Bernie Sanders’ policy instincts. He has a default distrust of many of the power centers of American foreign policy, and does not give in too quickly to their narratives about what’s going on in foreign countries. And that’s really important. The mainstream foreign policy community-from the news media to think tanks to the military, NSA, and CIA has given us disaster after disaster in the last 50 years: the Vietnam War, the Iraq War (which, lest we forget, Joe Biden voted for), the never-ending war in Afghanistan, the war in Libya. All of which Sanders opposed. Clearly and unequivocally. We need that sort of decisive leadership if we’re going to make America a force for good once again on the world stage.
The same held true for Iran. Elizabeth Warren accepted the conventional wisdom about Qassem Soleimani when he was killed; that he was a bad man, but we still shouldn’t have killed him. In terms of optics, this was not a smart move. If you’re going to call someone a “murderer, responsible for the deaths of thousands, including hundreds of Americans,” the logical response from many would be “Wait, what? Why wouldn’t we kill that guy?”
You can’t water down your messaging if you’re going to stop a war. Bernie Sanders came out and strongly condemned the assassination. He was willing to do what Warren, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg would not, and actually call it an assassination. Again, clear and direct messaging that makes it clear that this strike was not just a minor strategic mistake, but morally unjustified. And then he worked alongside Democrats and Republicans like Mike Lee in the Senate and House to write bills that would limit the ability of the President to make war in Iran. In the middle of a busy campaign long before it was clear he was the front runner, it was Sanders-not Warren- who took the lead in organizing the anti-war factions in the Senate. That leadership matters, and it’s the type of leadership we need in Washington.
Sanders has taken other stands on foreign policy that we should acknowledge. As has been stated above, he voted against Trump’s military budgets. Warren voted for several of them, though not the most recent one to her credit. He voted against Trump’s latest trade deal, which does nothing to address climate change. Warren voted for it. (Think Trump won’t use that against her in the fall debates if trade comes up?) Sanders has called for the end of the Patriot Act and the end of the mass surveillance state. That one matters a lot because that’s a reform Sanders can put into action on Day 1.
On foreign policy, Sanders gets it done. Clearly and unequivocally. I want a commander-in-chief like that.
- Warren’s campaign crashes on the rocks
The moves I’ve posted above reveal a lot about Warren’s policy preferences, but they also reveal quite a bit about her political instincts. And frankly they show that Sanders is a lot smarter politically. Sanders is consistent and clear in his messaging. His messaging has a moral core that resonates with voters.
I’ve often said that Sanders passes the bumper sticker test. Can an average voter (not a freak like me, but someone who follows politics occasionally and not obsessively) say what you stand for in a bumper sticker? If you want a policy to land with the people, you’d better be able to do that.
What’s Trump’s bumper sticker? Build a wall. Get tough on China. Fix NAFTA. Clear, simple messaging that has earned Trump a base of passionate supporters (and may well win him a reelection unless we can mobilize voters to vote for someone else instead of staying home.)
What’s Sanders bumper sticker? Medicare For All. Free College. No money from billionaires. Again, clear simple messaging. Every voter I’ve ever talked to knows a little of who Bernie Sanders is. Some voters hate him for sure. But everyone knows what he stands for, which is why he is the most popular active politician in the Democratic Party, according to a recent YouGov analysis.
Warren has not been able to settle on a bumper sticker. At first she was the plans person. She has a plan for that. Okay, but… I’ve got to get groceries, do my laundry, and just kinda go about my day, so could you maybe tell me the plans now? The closest she’s had is she’s the Wealth Tax person. Which is not bad but… a wealth tax? To do what? On who? What’s that got to do with me?
Instead of sharpening that message, Warren spent the last few weeks before the Iowa caucus getting bogged down in nonsense.
She attacked Pete Buttigieg over his fundraisers courting wealthy donors. A fair attack, but of course Buttigieg struck back, noting her own support from wealthy donors. Want to know who won that exchange?Bernie Sanders, noting rightly that there’s not a single billionaire supporting his campaign. (And note that he attacked Buttigieg, not Warren.)
She broke the truce with Bernie Sanders for next to nothing: a volunteer-written canvassing script that was likely never used and a conversation where Sanders allegedly claimed that a woman could not beat Trump (a claim he vigorously and consistently denied). The story died within a week; she sacrificed a friendly relationship with Sanders and support of many Sanders-sympathetic voters who might have been flipped for no benefit. She finished third in Iowa, fourth in New Hampshire, and fourth in Nevada for her efforts. She just finished fifth in South Carolina.
- The remarkable and unparalleled grassroots energy of the Sanders campaign.
In those contests, I believe Sanders firmly demonstrated that he is the candidate to take the hopes and dreams of progressives and bring them to fruition.
What Sanders did in these three states is nothing short of remarkable. The only other candidate who has done anything like what he did in my lifetime was Barack Obama.
Start with Iowa. Many observers, including myself before I went there, would like to write off Iowa as an all white state of corn farmers. Not Sanders and not his team.
Who pushed to organize the first ever caucuses in Mosques? Bernie Sanders. And Muslim voters voted for him in overwhelming numbers.
Who organized morning caucuses for the mostly immigrant workers who work at Iowa’s massive meatpacking plants? Bernie Sanders. And his supporters spent hours canvassing outside the doors of those plants to get working class voters to vote. Bernie Sanders’ campaign showed a unique ability in Iowa to go to the places where people weren’t going and turn them out.
Nevada was even more stunning. For months Sanders had people on the ground in Nevada, working in the Latinx community, talking to folks of all ages in both Spanish and English about what his campaign could mean for them. 50% of all Latinx and Hispanic caucus goers voted for Bernie Sanders. Elizabeth Warren got about 7%.
Nevada’s largest union, the Culinary Union, refused to endorse Sanders, and criticized his stance on Medicare For All. Sanders-affiliated union members took their message directly to the people. A majority of union members voted for Sanders and Medicare For All.
I often have heard white folks (myself included) on the left discuss-often in eloquent terms- how they are wrestling with their own privileges and their own blind spots as white people in America. That’s been a good thing to see, and an important thing for the left in America. If indeed we care about that journey and we care about truly empowering underprivileged and working people in America, we can’t turn a blind eye when massive numbers of them choose a candidate like Bernie Sanders. We need to acknowledge our blind spots and say “Maybe someone else is delivering my message in a way that resonates more with my allies on the ground.”
Sanders has done the work in these communities. Elizabeth Warren hasn’t. He has done the work to get these communities on his side, and done so without compromising his core message. Elizabeth Warren-for all her strengths and virtues- has not. That kind of work matters, and we need to stand behind that kind of work if we have any hope of a progressive vision winning in 2020.
- Warren scrambles… and sells her soul for a shot at the nomination.
Elizabeth Warren redeemed herself during the Nevada debate when she went after Bloomberg. I shouted at friends the next day, “GUYS! THE OLD LIZ WARREN’S BACK!” She found a villain worthy of the causes she espouses, and boy was it satisfying to watch her take the Mini Fascist from New York down.
(Sidenote: I don’t know who needs to hear this, but I’ve heard a lot of folks describe Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders as “angry”. And say that we do not need an “angry” president. I don’t have time to write too much about this now, but I’ll remind folks that anger is an appropriate response to injustice. And it’s important to name the injustice. Mike Bloomberg has used his billions and his political power to silence women, organize a vast campaign of police violence against young black and Hispanic men, crush unions, and buy off opposition, while espousing some of the most vile viewpoints in American politics. That’s worth being angry about, and I’m glad Warren and Sanders are angry on my behalf.)
What happened the next day? She accepted the support of a Super PAC. Almost a year to the day after she swore to never use Super PAC money. Now she is. Worse yet, the Super PAC she’s taking is founded by an oil industry lobbyist, and despite her request, has refused to disclose its donors. Which is exactly what Super PACs do.
Warren’s message has been across her entire career, pretty simple: that the rich and powerful have a corrupting influence on our economy and our system of government. For her to take that money at this time in the race is a profound betrayal of those values.
Some folks have defended Warren. Hey, it’s a competitive race, and sometimes you have to make compromises to survive.And in any other election, I might have accepted that, because in any other election, Elizabeth Warren would have been the left’s best hope.
But in this election we have Bernie Sanders. A candidate who has raised more money from small donors than any candidate in history. How can we look at a candidate like that and refuse to accept that? How do we not rally behind a candidate and an organization who can do that? The money of the rich is inherently corrupting. You take it, and the wealthy will expect favors and concessions. That’s how that money works. It’s a poisoned chalice. Many candidates have to take that money to survive. It’s the nature of the game. But it’s impossible to take it without then taking their meetings. And being told that, “Hey, maybe you could go slow on that Medicare For All. Or that Green New Deal that will harm my business.” And anyone who has ever been in politics will tell you, it’s hard to say no to those pleas. And from what I’ve seen so far, I’m not convinced Elizabeth Warren will be able to do that. And even if I was, I don’t want to take the risk in an election that has Bernie Sanders
So why is that money ($12 million so far for Super Tuesday races)coming to Elizabeth Warren now so late in the race? Well, I think Krystal Ball put it best.
Elizabeth Warren has been increasingly open about what she wants to do in this race: stay in the race as long as possible. Get as many delegates as she can. And then use those delegates to contest the convention, and make a pitch to the super-delegates that she’s their preferred candidates.
I’ve heard a lot of discussion that basically amounts to, “Well see this was in the rules, so that makes it okay.” Some real moral high ground stuff. I want to get away from that sort of stuff at least for a minute and explain why this is an absolutely disastrous scenario for progressive voters:
- First, let’s get this out of way: a contested convention that does NOT go to the popular vote winner is fundamentally undemocratic. Like, by definition. What moral high ground would we have to challenge the Electoral College if THIS is how we pick our candidate? Yes, the primary process is flawed and absurd. No one has been more vocal about that than Bernie Sanders and his supporters. But this is an absolutely ridiculous solution to that problem.
- A contested convention will also virtually guarantee a Trump win in November. Trump will blast the message out of every bullhorn who’s got that the Democratic primary was “rigged.” If I were his campaign manager, I would blast out millions of dollars of TV ads saying exactly that. Bernie voters (if Bernie is the popular vote winner, which the odds suggest he will be) will stay home. But more importantly, swing voters and inconsistent voters (i.e. voters who don’t vote in every election) will either stay home or vote for Trump. The number one complaint among these voters? That democracy looks rigged. What on earth will you say to them about this convention? How on earth will you explain that superdelegates represent the democratic will of the people?
- A contested convention will NOT go to Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, or any other candidate who has made promises to go after the big money and the big financial interests that dominate our politics. I’m sorry, but it won’t. One of the leaders of the push for a contested convention is a lobbyist for the private insurance industry. Elizabeth Warren wants to go after the machine. This IS the machine. Superdelegates might vote for Joe Biden, especially if he does better than expected after his win in South Carolina. They might go for Mike Bloomberg, who is quite literally trying to buy them off. Or they might go for someone completely different. Anonymous superdelegates have pitched Sherrod Brown of all people.
In pushing for a contested convention, Elizabeth Warren is giving into a fundamentally undemocratic process that strips our voices as voters, one which will almost certainly go against the very priorities we have all been working hard to make a reality.
None of this is easy for me. I have admired Elizabeth Warren for years, going back to when I first started to dip my toe into leftist politics. There was a time when I thought she was as far as we could possibly go left in America. Thanks to Bernie Sanders, that has changed; the world has changed underneath our feet, and we need to embrace that change. Bernie Sanders is better on policy, better in his political experience, and better in his understanding of how to get working people to the polls. And right now he’s our best shot at having a true left nominee for President, and heading off a contested convention that will not go our way.
To my friends supporting Elizabeth Warren, I ask you to remember this: We’re not fighting for one man or woman. We’re fighting for a movement. We’re fighting to make America a place that fundamentally values human life, and does not place greater value on the lives and desires of the wealthy and well-connected. I’m not in this fight for Bernie Sanders; I’m in this fight to make the vision of a better America a reality. Right now, the only people I believe represent that vision are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. And right now, our best shot at making that vision a reality is Bernie Sanders.
Get on board now, folks, before Super Tuesday, and let’s make that happen.